Valuation methodology
Probability-weighted DCF, sensitivity on MOIC and HUMAIN realisation probability, benchmarked against observable GP-stake transactions.
Three industry-standard methods are used to test the tier valuations, each grounded in observable market practice for General Partner stake transactions.
The primary method is a probability-weighted discounted cash flow. Layer 1 and Layer 2 GP economics per programme are projected, realisation probability weights applied to each component, and the result discounted at a risk-appropriate rate. This is the methodology used internally by Petershill, Blackstone Strategic Capital, Goldman Petershill, Blue Owl Capital (formerly Dyal), and Bonaccord Capital Partners when pricing GP stake transactions [industry practice, placement agent conversations, 2025-2026].
A second method draws on GP stake market comparables. Mature GP stakes trade at multiples of forward distributable Fee-Related Earnings. Industry benchmarks indicate established GP stakes trade at approximately 8 to 15 times FRE for the management fee stream and 5 to 10 times for the carry stream. A third method applies probability-weighted scenario trees to base, upside, and downside MOIC scenarios.
Probability assumptions reflect the current commercial status of each scope component: 90 per cent on the three first Hydra Compute SPVs (contracted, near-term, identified counterparties); 75 per cent on the four additional SPVs (pipeline identified, less contracted); 34 per cent on the full HUMAIN programme (post 21 May 2026 introductory meeting, decomposed as 95 per cent engagement progresses, 65 per cent POC closes, 50 per cent scales to full deployment); 25 per cent on the Global Pipeline (expected but not signed); 70 per cent on Intelligence and Advisory.
Discount rates are calibrated to risk profile: 15 per cent for Hydra Compute Series A (AI infrastructure equity benchmark, with the CoreWeave Delayed Draw Term Loan transaction of 31 March 2026 pricing USD 8.5 billion of senior debt at A3 / A(low) ratings as the comparable [CoreWeave Inc., DDTL announcement, 31 March 2026]); 18 per cent for HUMAIN (sovereign-backed with GCC execution premium); 25 per cent for Global Pipeline (emerging manager benchmark); 20 per cent for Intelligence and Advisory.
| Tier | Risk-adjusted NPV | Current valuation | % of NPV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | USD 9.0M | USD 1.5M | 17% (below alignment floor) |
| Tier 2 | USD 19.1M | USD 3.0M | 16% (below alignment floor) |
| Tier 3 | USD 42.4M | USD 15M | 35% (alignment-priced) |
| Tier 4 | USD 107.1M | USD 40M | 37% (alignment-priced) |
The percentage of NPV at which each tier is priced sits against three observable industry pricing zones for GP stake transactions: 60 to 80 per cent of NPV for established GP stakes (Petershill and Blackstone Strategic Capital transactions in mature platforms); 40 to 60 per cent for emerging manager GP stakes; 20 to 40 per cent for alignment or talent retention positions. Tiers 1 and 2 sit below the alignment floor at 17 and 16 per cent. Tiers 3 and 4 sit within the alignment-priced range at 35 and 37 per cent.